Community-Generated PGR Prediction–How Close Can We Get?

Hey all, TrentEsports here. You may remember me from such shows as the blog you’re reading right now. Lots of you read and responded to my Mid-Season Mock PGR a few months ago, which was a blast to make.

Making a ranking such as the PGR is utterly fascinating to me. It’s completely based on data, but people respond so emotionally to the results. This kind of stuff really matters to the community, and I think it’s a ton of fun to examine and try to predict. Obviously, no matter what methodology is used, or how carefully the calculations are run, we’re all going to disagree with some aspect of the PGR. We’re all going to make a case for why some player should be higher or lower. Unfortunately, there’s nothing we can do to change the results. We can’t message Suar on Twitter with our compelling argument and get him to re-do the videos based on our feedback.

But what if you could? What if you could present your case for your favorite players, and actually change the rankings based on your argument? What if, with our combined passion and research, we could create an approximation of the PGR together? How close would we get to the real thing? Would we prefer our results, or the ones that the data reveals next week? Could the community ever actually reach consensus?

Here’s what I propose–based on the data from my Mock PGR, I’m going to list below my prediction for the PGRv3. Then, when you disagree with where I’ve ranked a player, state your case either in the Reddit thread, or on Twitter. Based on the feedback, I will go home tonight and edit my top 50. Then tomorrow, I’ll post the new revised top 50 and we’ll start the process again. We’ll keep doing this either until we reach consensus, the PGR actually comes out, or you all get bored.

Rules

I’m doing this first draft with far less research than my midseason mock, but using it as a template. Ideally, you’ll have lots of opinions about this first draft, and then those will be reduced or better defined as we go along.

When you argue your case for a player, it must be based on their results as they are reflected by the PGR. The point of this exercise is to see how our opinions affect the data, so we have to use the PGR rules as a control. Therefore, you must argue based on the Tournament Tier System, the player’s wins against other PGR members, and award bonus points for wins against the PGRv3 top ten. Remember, 50% of a player’s score is based on their placings, and 50% is based on their set count against the rest of the PGR. Use that methodology, and convince me why I’m so wrong about Nairo or whoever.

Last rule: Remember that when a player gets moved up, other players have to move down. It isn’t enough to say that Fow “should be higher”. You need to justify how high he moves by showing that his results are better than players below where you want him to move. That said, lets do this thing!

#50 WaDi [Mewtwo]

We didn’t see WaDi at many events, but Glitch 3 was plenty. That tournament alone gave him an A-tier win and a win against a player in the top 10, Captain Zack.

#49 Dath [Robin, not Sonic]

Dath doesn’t have anything quite like his Shine run from last year to pad the resume, but he did secure 9th at FPS2. He also has more S-tier points than many other players in contention for this spot.

#48 Fow [Ness]

he didn’t come to many events, but he showed up when it mattered. Wins against the top 10 and reasonable placings at S- and A-tiers give Fow a well-deserved spot on this draft.

#47 Raito [Duck Hunt]

Thanks to the generosity of the Duck Hunt Discord, Raito has made waves this season. He has multiple wins against top players and a few respectable placings.

#46 CL | DSS [Meta Knight]

We had DSS at #45 in the Mid-Season Mock. He hasn’t fallen off especially hard, he just hasn’t competed enough in the back half of the season outside of SoCal to stay any higher. However, a few solid showings and some upset wins give him enough juice to stay on.

#45 MF |LH K9sbruce [Shiek/Diddy Kong]

K9 hasn’t had an amazing season, but he made waves at a few 2GG events and should sneak into the bottom of the list.

#44 eM | Zenyou [Mario]

SoCal helped the start of the year for many players, but the consistency fell off as more big events happened on the east coast.

#43 Manny [Sonic]

CEO gave Manny some more upsets that should help his case

#42 CLG | NAKAT [Ness, etc]

People were mad about his absence last time, I think he did enough to make it onto v3.

#41 HY 6S | Javi [Cloud]

If doubles counted he’s be way higher, but it doesn’t. Still, Javi had some decent runs throughout the season.

#40 Nietono [Shiek]

A good showing at Civil War and placings back in Japan keep Nietono on the list.

#39 Yatta Gaming | JK [Bayonetta]

He made top 8 at an A-tier, and has several good wins, enough to be above several of his SoCal bretheren.

#38 AC [Falco/Meta Knight]

AC was a bracket demon for many early in the season, and made Top 8 at an A-tier.

#37 T [Link]

Now with a full season, Civil War weighs far less than it did at the halfway mark. That run gave T many wins and a great placing, but that’s about all he has.

#36 Circa | 6WX [Sonic]

6WX made some waves, but not enough to stay in the top 30.

#35 Earth [Pit/Corrin]

Despite a character crisis, Earth had a solid season in japan, and showed up at Civil War. However, the lack of attendance in the states at S-tiers hurt this season.

#34 DNG | Kameme [Mega Man]

There have been bright moments, but largely the season’s been a disappointment for Kameme following his 2nd at EVO last season.

#33 RVL | Mr. E [Marth]

The season’s been rough for Mr. E, but he managed to put together a few 9th place finishes, and some minor Top 8s.

 

#32 Ned [Cloud]

A win over Zero, multiple top 8s, and a win at a Midwest Mayhem gave Ned a strong start to the season. He just hasn’t followed that start up with a big finish.

#31HIKARU [D.K]

HIKARU racked up the big wins at Civil War, and had several good placements in Japan this season.

#30 PG | MVD [Diddy Kong]

His win over ANTi actually looks better now than it did halfway through the season, and he capped the season with a great run at CEO.

#29 PG | Rich Brown [Mewtwo]

Rich had a promising start to the season, but having to miss so much action for his surgery combined with the struggles coming back to the scene sadly dropped Rich a few spots from PGRv2.

#28 Shuton [Olimar]

Shuton was a terror at the start of the season, but has not returned to the states in the back half of the season to earn any more significant wins.

#27 BSD | Elegant [Luigi]

Those wins over Salem and Fatality look real nice right now. Not to mention Top 8 at Nairo Saga.

#26 Tsu [Lucario]

Tsu doesn’t have a huge resume this season, but the resume he has is rather impressive and includes a coveted win over ZeRo.

#25 SHI-gaming | 9B [Bayonetta]

His wins look slightly less impressive at the end of the season, but 9B has good placings to keep him securely in the top 30.

#24 StDx | Falln [Rosalina & Luma]

Greninja Saga alone gave Falln an A-tier top 8 and a win over ZeRo without considering the rest of his solid resume.

#23 Samsora [Peach]

His run at CEO Dreamland gave Samsora several good wins, but I think some of his final placing will rely on who actually ends up in the top 10. If VoiD misses it, it really hurts Samsora’s resume.

#22 EG | Zinoto [Diddy Kong]

He picked up a shiny new sponsor, but his wins don’t necessarily impress as much as the rest of the list.

#21 IMT | ANTi [Mario and some stuff]

Greninja Saga quite literally saved ANTI’s season with a win over ZeRo and a Top 8 finish, but he wasn’t able to follow that up enough to crack the top 20 in this draft.

#20 PG | ESAM [Pikachu/Samus]

A win over Ally and multiple big Top 8s get ESAM into the top 20 in this draft.

#19 Locus [Ryu]

Civil War was not a fluke for Locus. He followed it up with a great showing at a Midwest Mayhem and Top 8 at Dreamhack Austin.

#18 Ranai [Villager]

We’re still waiting for that same Ranai from Genesis 3 to show up, and unfortunately it didn’t happen this season. That said, his S tier placings were solid and he has wins against the top 10 guaranteed.

#17 Kirihara [Rosalina & Luma]

S-tier top 8, win over ZeRo, win at FPS2–it was a good year for Kirihara, coming in as the most improved player from PGRv2 in this draft.

#16 MVG | Salem [Bayonetta]

Salem was in danger of dropping out of the top 20…and then Nairo Saga. That event alone secured Salem a top 20 spot.

#15 YP | Fatality [Captain Falcon]

The only thing missing from Salem’s resume is a win over ZeRo. Fatality has a win over ZeRo, and most of the things on Salem’s resume.

#14 P1 | Tweek [Cloud]

Tweek really did have a great year, but he wanted top 10 so bad, it’s really hard putting him this close, yet so far. That said, the S-tier results just aren’t there to justify any higher in this first draft.

#13 KEN [Sonic]

KEN is top 15 without question, but where exactly is tough to say. He’s got plenty of placings, but a lack of S-tier results. Fortunately, he made it to Top 8 at CEO, which should secure him this spot on PGRv3. I just don’t think he has the wins to go higher.

#12 CLG | VoiD [Shiek]

There may be an argument for VoiD to fall lower than this. His S-tier placings are just not where you would expect for such an elite player.

#11 Marss [Zero Suit Samus]

Marss has multiple S-tier top 8s. However, he doesn’t have the volume of work, or the top 10 wins to secure a place in the top 10.

#10 2GG | Komorikiri [Cloud]

Komo had a great year, and shows up in the Top 8 of many events, but his peak S-Tier placings are lower than everyone else in the top 10.

#9 LG | Abadango [Mewtwo]

Multiple S-tier top 8s, and a win over Komorikiri are what give Abadango his spot on the top 10.

#8 Misfits | Larry Lurr [Fox]

The first half of this season was tough for Larry, but he brought it back in the final stretch. CEO gave him an S-tier top 8, and Greninja Saga brought him several good wins to get to 2nd place.

#7 Poor | Mr. R [Shiek]

Mr. R secured himself a solid place in the top 10 this season. it’s really only ZeRo’s gatekeeping that prevents him from climbing much higher.

#6 P1 | Captain Zack [Himself]

Three S-tier Top 8s. Three. Dude shows up when it counts. The only thing keeping Zack from climbing any higher is that he doesn’t actually have any tournament wins under his belt.

#5 C9 | Ally [Mario]

To me there’s a clear line drawn at #5. Everyone from this point forward has multiple S-Tier Top 8s, and at least one A-tier tournament win. Ally stops here because the only win on his resume is a single A-tier, and he’s the only member of the top 5 to get absolutely no points from CEO.

#4 NRG | Nairo [Zero Suit Samus]

Win at Momocon along with two S-Tier top 8s. Nairo’s also the only player with finishes in the top 24 at all 4 S-Tier events.

#3 RNG | Dabuz [Rosalina & Luma]

One could make a case for Nairo over Dabuz since Dabuz missed Nairo Saga. However, Dabuz won the most valuable tournament of the entire season, so that should give him the edge.

#2 MVG FOX | MKLeo [Swords]

It felt like half the tournaments this season put Leo against ZeRo for the finals. He has an S-tier win, high placings everywhere–this was absolutely Leo’s season. Except, you know, for that one guy.

#1 TSM | ZeRo [Diddy Kong]

Duh.

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